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KEY ISSUES AND INFORMATION SOURCES -
Consumption

Current food consumption patterns and global sustainability

Discussion Paper

Executive Summary

The most pressing current and future problems for the entire food sector are:

• global population growth;
• north-south disparities;
  
• global capacity to provide sufficient food; and
  
• the profound geographical mismatch between food demand and supply.

The world's population will reach 7.5 billion in 2020, with an average yearly increase of 73 million people; 97.5 per cent of these births will be in the developing countries. The factors that will put pressure on food supplies and influence food security are:

• availability of land for farming;
  
• water scarcity;
  
• changes in trade and international markets;
  
• urbanization;
  
• increased income and its unequal distribution;
  
• population migration;
  
• epidemic crises (such as HIV/AIDS); and
  
• changes in dietary habits.

Eradicating hunger in Africa is a major challenge because Africa has the fastest population growth as well as the world's lowest crop yield. The potential for both irrigation and fertilizer use is also very low.
The necessary expansion of global food production is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve The three major food systems - rangelands, croplands, and marine fisheries - have started to decrease their output (even though human input has continued to grow).

Water scarcity together with soil erosion and land degradation are the main threats to future increases in productivity. Competition for the use of natural resources is a major problem in global food production, as is the present increased use of grains, such as maize and soy for feeding livestock.

A striking change within the last two decades has been the shift of entire populations from grain-based diets to consumption of meat and dairy products.
One of the most challenging issues is the urgent need to increase world food production given the limited capacity of the earth's land and water resources. Many regions in the world already suffer from severe symptoms of overexploitation, degradation and reduced productivity caused by unbalanced management in the use of natural agro-ecosystems.
There are large disparities between different regions in terms of specific environmental impact from agriculture and livestock production.

Between 1950 and the 1990's, meat production in China increased by almost 1000 per cent and in India by about 700 per cent. Milk production in Brazil has grown by more than 300 per cent, while egg production in India has increased by about 1000 per cent.

The total effect on the environment of animal farming can be divided into direct impacts such as gas emissions, pollution, and soil degradation, and indirect impacts such as the production of grain and animal feed required for cattle nutrition.
The so-called "Livestock Revolution" occurring in most of the developing countries has already caused serious environmental problems such as forest loss and soil degradation.

Overgrazing may cause soil erosion, decrease in fertility and organic content, water infiltration and soil compaction. Modern farming methods are the most severe environmental challenge in the livestock sector. The most pressing environmental issues arising from intensive farming systems are methane and ammonia emissions, water and soil pollution due to slurry and manure accumulation, eutrophication, and pathogenic contamination.

In the food production cycle, farming has the largest environmental impact, but manufacturing and household consumption also play key roles due to their high use of energy, water consumption and waste production. Total energy used by consumers forms 32 per cent of the total energy demand of the food sector. Most of the consumers' impact is indirect, but important as consumer preferences affect the production phase.

Transport - either during the retailing and distributing phase or in the process of household consumption has - significant direct impacts.

Where environmental impacts of households are concerned, cooking consumes most energy, the rate of consumption being dependent on the specific cooking method. Water consumption and waste production are also important in the direct impact of households.
Consumer habits in food buying, preparation, cooking, eating and disposal have a considerable impact, as does choice of foods. From a life cycle point of view, the worst food products are greenhouse-grown vegetables and meat products, especially when transported by plane.

Recent world-wide modifications of food consumption patterns have led to a complete transformation of dietary models. The transformation of lifestyles and cultural models, the altered time-organization of daily life, the current socio-demographic changes and the modification of market and labour processes are the major influences in changing food choices. Globally, the most significant changes in food consumption patterns have undoubtedly been in developing countries, particularly because of the rapidity of the process. The most important factors driving current trends in developing countries are urbanization, rising incomes, and changing lifestyles. Traditional meals, based on cereals and vegetables as well as local grain and root dishes, have been rapidly replaced by, or at least now include, livestock products and other non traditional cereals such as wheat.

The service input to the food sector has become preponderant, as a result of more 'eating out' and more consumer demand for convenience. Convenience is increasingly demanded by consumers, one of the most evident trends being the lack of time for shopping, cooking, and eating. Nutrition, food safety and health benefits have also become very important issues world-wide. In each country, consumers have increased expectations about what they eat and demand more guaranteed quality and safety.

The increase in global food trade and the opening of western markets to overseas food products have tended to make the public become more aware of 'risk' factors associated with diet.

Largely due to the media, western lifestyle has increasingly influenced developing countries in the last decade. Because of increased international trade, western companies are attempting to export to the emerging new markets and the advertising and other marketing tools which they employ tend to export not only food products but also negative aspects of lifestyle.

In their attempts to influence potential customers, food companies use advertising, marketing, consumer studies, psychological and sociological research. TV advertising is the most powerful tool with which to reach the public The amount of money currently spent on advertising may be more than 15 per cent of the final price of a food product.
Companies now work increasingly to advance the lifestyle and values that will create future customers. This manipulation of customer perception, expectation and motivation attempts to create a demand for both the real and perceived qualities of the products.

Keywords: food; production; consumption; environment; consumers; sustainability

Introduction

The aim of this paper is to provide a complete picture of the food system highlighting the causes and the effects of current global food consumption patterns. The impact on the environment by the food chain is divided into its components, in order to show where the major pressures are.
Concern is usually expressed over the effects of the production phase, including farming and processing, because these effects are more obvious. However, patterns of food consumption also contribute considerably to the lack of sustainability of the food system. Therefore, in order to influence global consumption in a positive way, it is necessary to understand what motivates consumer food choices and habits.
The data presented in this paper are not exhaustive, but show clearly that the numerous weaknesses which exist in the current food chain may have very serious consequences for global food security if effective solutions are not found rapidly.

A glimpse of global trends

When facing the numerous challenges which affect the cycle of food consumption and production it is necessary to act locally and think globally. It is important therefore to start any discussion with a global overview of the factors which most influence the current situation and projected future trends
The prime factors in both the current and projected future situations are global population growth and north-south disparities.
Since Malthus` projections many scientists have assumed a constant rate of world population increase and the global capacity to provide sufficient food, but this does not represent the real situation. The major problem, is in fact, the distribution of natural resources and the profound geographical mismatch between food demand and supply. (It has been argued that the term `need` is more appropriate than `demand` because in the poorest countries the real needs of the people do not even constitute a normal consumer 'demand').
Hunger has been also described as a 'productivity problem', with two possible causes: either people do not produce enough food or they cannot afford to buy it. [1] The majority of proposed solutions have concentrated on production. Numerous researchers worldwide are developing possible improvement of both crop yields and conversion rate efficiency to avoid the worst predicted scenarios.
It has been estimated that world's population will reach 7.5 billion in 2020, with an average yearly increase of 73 million, 97.5 per cent being in the developing countries. In 2020, it is estimated that there will be 6,285 million people in the developing countries and only 1,217 million in the developed countries. The greatest relative increase will be in Africa (70.3 per cent between 1995 and 2020), while the highest absolute growth will be in Asia at 4,421 million. [2]
Population growth and many other factors will put pressure on food supplies and threaten food security. Among them are: availability of land for farming; water scarcity; changes in trade and international markets; urbanization; income increase and its unequal distribution; population migration, epidemic crises (such as HIV/AIDS); and changes in dietary habits.
Globally, nutrition has improved in recent decades and many developing countries have reduced the numbers of children suffering from hunger and malnutrition, though the rate of malnutrition is still very high. Moreover, in areas such as Sub Saharan Africa, the rate has been increasing. For instance, in Nigeria - the most populous country in Africa - the figure for under-nourished children has reached 39 per cent. [1]
Sub Saharan Africa is currently a focus of global concern over future food security. Eradicating hunger in Africa is a major challenge because it is in Africa that population is growing fastest but crop yields are lowest, and the potential for irrigation and fertilizer use is very low.
The situation is most serious in Africa and in other highly populated areas like India, but there is also the overall global problem of obtaining ever more food from existing natural resources. The expected population increase is about 73 million a year and the necessary expansion of global food production is becoming more and more difficult. The three major food systems, i.e. rangelands, croplands, and marine fisheries, have started to decrease their output (although human input has continued to grow) because of overexploitation, reaching of their present natural limits, and global climate changes. The average current annual rate of global yield increase is about 2.449 per cent, while it has been calculated that it should be about 4 per cent to satisfy the worlds growing population. [3] Moreover, great disparities have been observed between different countries. For example, in China spectacular yield increases have been achieved in maize, rice, and wheat production while negative trends have been registered in Sub Saharan Africa. [4]
Water scarcity together with soil erosion and land degradation are predicted as the main threats to increased future productivity. Some recent scientific studies have also shown that the already alarming situation could be exacerbated by any increase in global temperature. It has been demonstrated that any 1 °C increase over the physiological limit causes damage to rice fertility reducing the yield by about 16 per cent. Similar trends have been found in wheat, maize, soybeans and peanuts.[5]
Competition for the use of natural resources is a major concern. The increased use of grain crops such as maize and soy in feeding livestock for human consumption is a problem. One of the most important phenomena of the last two decades has been the shift of entire populations from grain based diets to consumption of meat and dairy produce.
According to World Bank data, the livestock production index has grown constantly everywhere in the world, but the largest increase has been in China, where it doubled between 1991 and 1998. It has been estimated that per capita demand for red meat will rise sharply in China, reaching 28 kg/ year per capita for pork and 3 kg per capita for beef in the year 2020. These enormous increases, considering the high levels of both actual population and population growth, will cause a tremendous increase in feed grain demand. [6] As more than 70 per cent of the Chinese population live in rural areas, only 10 per cent of the country's land is arable, and the average farm size was about 0.40 ha/farm in 1997 (as against 0.56 in 1988), [7] current consumption trends are of great concern.
Rising incomes in many of the developing regions will increase meat consumption, and the world's appetite for meat, especially for poultry, is forecast to grow by more than 55 per cent in the 1997-2020 period. [7] Although developing countries, as a group, are expected to demand twice as much cereal and meat products as developed countries in 2020, each person in developing countries will still consume about half of the cereal consumed by a developed-country person, and one-third of the meat. [2] It has also been estimated that, due to the increase in demand for animal feed cereals, the demand for maize in developing countries will become higher than that of rice and wheat. As a direct consequence of all these altered consumption patterns, profound changes in the global market structure will soon take place. It is expected that countries which have traditionally been exporters will become net-importers and vice versa. An example of global modification is the fact that in 1997 the United States was overtaken by India in milk production (with 79 million tonnes of milk).[8]
The data reported here show clearly how complex the global food situation is and give a rough idea of how much effort is needed to modify current trends.
We end this brief global glance with some provocative data:

• In 1997, the total daily calorie intake from meat per person was 1,837 kcal in North America and 510 kcal in China, while the total daily calorie intake (not only from meat, but in total) in Sub Saharan Africa was 2,183 kcal, of which only 143 from meat. [3]
  
• Among foods derived from cereals, there has been a considerable increase in the production of barley for beer - not usually considered as a staple food!
  
• In Africa beer exports increased from 21,212 million tonnes (Mt) in 1985 to 66,393 Mt in 1999, while beer production in China increased from 1,029,346 Mt in 1980 to 22,473,51 Mt in 2001! By comparison the present German production rate is 10,462,800 Mt (FAOSTAT database ).
  
• In developing countries, the average per capita gross domestic product (GDP ) was US$ 3,530 in 2000, while in high income countries it was US$25,860. In low income countries it was US$1,910.[9]
  
• In real terms, a Japanese citizen spends 80 times as much as a Tanzanian on food, and it should be emphasized that in the poorer countries families need to spend nearly all of their income purely on food.[10]

Figure 1 - World demand for meat, 1974, 1997, and 2020

Figure 2 - Types of meat demanded globally, 1997, and increase, 1997-2020

Figure 3 - World demand for cereals, 1974, 1997, and 2020

Figure 4 - Regional shares of increased cereal demand, 1997- 2020

Environmental Impact of food production and consumption

The environmental impact of farming

One of the most challenging current issues, taking into account the finite capacity of the earth's land and water resources, is the urgent need to increase world food production, to keep pace with the growing global population. Many regions in the world already suffer from severe symptoms of overexploitation, degradation, and reduced productivity caused by unbalanced management of natural agro-ecosystems. [11]
In the 50 years since 1950, global agricultural production has increased by 60 per cent whereas the 1950 level of production had been reached only after 10,000 years of agricultural development. This recent acceleration of production is due to the use of mechanization, chemicals, specialization, selection of high-yielding cereals, expansion of irrigated areas and arable lands, and the development of specific farming systems. [12]
Over the last 50 years, Mexico, China, the United Kingdom and France have been able to quadruple their wheat yield per hectare, while the USA has done the same with corn yields. Remarkable increases have also been recorded in India. [13] Unfortunately, this positive trend seems to have reached a steady state, and farmers cannot perpetually raise yields, particularly where natural capacity has already been exceeded.
The situation is worsened by widespread soil degradation, erosion, and shortage of new arable land. [14] Current farming activity has been compared to mining, because it is an extractive process in which farmers 'mine' the soil through the plants and extract nutrients which are not usually replaced. [15]
This has already occurred in numerous areas of the world, in particular in developing countries, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, where rural populations rely more than ever on soil quality and quantity as the basis for the agricultural production necessary for their survival.
The importance of agricultural land in terms of theoretical contribution to wealth has been analysed by the World Bank, which concluded that agricultural land accounts for most of the value of natural resources in most areas. [16] At present, for the majority of the world's population, agriculture represents the dominant, often the sole, source of livelihood. In 1996, 3.1 billion people were living in rural areas, where 2.5 billion were directly dependent on agricultural labour. In many of the poorest countries, the contribution of agriculture to total GDP represents 40-60 per cent. The total value of output from the world's agro-ecosystems has been estimated as US$1.3 trillion per year. [17] Although the enormous value of healthy land has been widely perceived (and calculated in monetary terms) pressure of necessary food production and poor agricultural management has resulted in great damage to natural resources.
At the moment, cropland and managed pasture cover 28 per cent of the global land surface, whereas permanent crops occupy around 131 million hectares. Even if the net growth is only 2 per cent per year, this means that at global scale very large areas are removed from wild habitats every year. Thirty-eight per cent of global agriculture is in tropical regions and 23 per cent in subtropical regions. The irrigated areas cover at present 270 million hectares globally, but they continue to expand annually by 3.3 million hectares. [18] In the search for new cultivable land, farming often expands into forest areas or marginal lands, usually characterized by fragile soils easily subject to erosion and nutrient depletion. In many developing countries, where traditional farming systems based on slash-and-burn still exist, the rapid process of transition to market economies and subsequent pressure to increase output poses a threat to the natural environment. To maintain high productivity in the slash and burn areas more than 15 years of lying fallow are usually required, while at the moment plots are rotated every four to five years. This causes a tremendous decrease in productivity which in turn requires more deforestation. It has been recorded, for instance, that the current rate of deforestation in Vietnam is about 200,000 hectares per year. [19]
Forests represent natural ecosystems and perform numerous functions such as carbon storage, maintenance of soil fertility, and highly efficient conversion of solar energy. They also accommodate biodiversity. By contrast agricultural lands are not self-sustaining ecosystems but are created by humans and require constant maintenance. It has been calculated, for example, that the total energy input per kg of corn produced in the USA is about 1,392 kcal, due to the high use of fossil energy and machine power, while the corresponding ratio in a natural low input agriculture may be about 50 times less. [20]
The large amounts of fossil energy currently used in modern agriculture (including that required for the production of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides) has transformed cultivated lands from CO2-net-absorbers to CO2-emitters. [21] It has also been observed that, in agricultural areas, the carbon stored in soils is twice that stored in the vegetation supported by the soils.[22] So, where the topsoil is eroded because of overuse and lack of nutrients, the situation is even worse in terms of CO2 storage.
One of the most evident characteristics of agriculture is the loss of biodiversity, defined as the variability of living organisms from all sources and the ecological complexes of which they are part. First of all, it should be underlined that almost 90 per cent of the global calorie intake currently comes from just 30 crops. Moreover, the spread of a few selected modern crop varieties has dramatically increased, especially in developing countries, with the consequence of a dangerous global genetic homogeneity. In addition to the very restricted numbers of vegetable species utilized, biodiversity has also been lost due to the destruction of wildlife habitats and the contamination of natural resources by modern agriculture. The problem of variety loss has been made worse by the current increase in areas planted with transgenic crops, estimated at present at 39.9 million hectares.
Low-input farming methods and the use of organic crops have been considered as a valuable alternative to traditional agriculture in preserving biodiversity. Although organic farming is a good solution in most developed countries, it cannot be regarded as a possible option on the global scale. The reduced yields usually obtained from this kind of agriculture [23] would require further expansion of cultivated areas, which in turn would result in large biodiversity loss. Certainly the case if all the land currently cultivated with traditional farming methods were converted. [24] On the other hand, the adoption of alternative agricultural practices could be very useful in decreasing the huge amounts of mineral fertilizers and pesticides which are currently used. In fact, in high-yield areas, low prices and subsidies have often encouraged their excessive and irrational use.
It should be noted that the richest countries are at present experiencing the consequences of excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides (such as food, soil, and water contamination, eutrophication, and habitat loss), whereas in many less-favoured areas (in particular the arid regions) environmental degradation, land degradation, erosion, and salinization are usually due to the lack of external input and irrigation.
The use of fertilizers in Sub-Saharan Africa is on average 11.6 kg of nitrogen-phosphorous-potassium (NPP) per hectare, while in Europe it is about 158 kg. It is 265 kg in East Asia, which is nowadays the region with the most intensive fertilizer use. [25]
It is therefore clear that large disparities exist among different regions of the world and the environmental impact of agriculture shows itself in specific forms according to the particular conditions of the area involved. Soil erosion, tree cutting, habitat destruction, and fertility loss are problems more frequently observed in poor rural areas, while deterioration of soil and water, eutrophication, salinization, and excess of nutrients are usually typical of high-input farming, as is the case in Europe and Latin America. [26]
One of the most challenging issues at the moment, for all regions of the world, is freshwater scarcity.[27] The increasing demand for agricultural products, for feed and food, coupled with the ongoing processes of population growth and urbanization have led to increasingly fierce global competition for freshwater.
In fact, even if water is globally abundant, it is very scarce in many specific regions, is unequally distributed across seasons and populations and, even worse, is at present no longer available for human consumption in many areas, due to pollution or salt intrusion. Currently, agriculture accounts for 72 per cent of the world's use of water; for instance US agriculture alone uses, in total, 400.1012 litres of water/year. [16] It has been calculated that the additional world requirements for freshwater for food production could be 57 per cent higher than the present level by 2025, if current inefficient irrigation practices and overexploitation continue. It has been estimated that 26 countries, with a population of 300 million people, already suffer from water scarcity, and the projections for 2020 are that two-thirds of the world population will face moderate/severe water scarcity. [28]
All possible measures to preserve the quality and quantity of freshwater must be adopted if the growing food demand is to be satisfied. Increasing the use of external inputs such as energy and synthetic products cannot prevent the eventual loss of freshwater or any other necessary natural constituents such as top-soil.

The environmental impact of livestock production

Between 1950 and the 1990's, meat production increased in China by almost 1000 per cent and in India by about 700 per cent; milk production in Brazil grew by more than 300 per cent in the same period, while egg production in India increased by about 1000 per cent. Among all the meat categories, poultry has increased globally by 773 per cent and pork by 255 per cent in only 40 years (FAO data). These few facts are sufficient to explain the great concern that exists over the enormous worldwide environmental burden that livestock production entails.
The total effect on the environment due to animal farming can be divided into direct impacts such as gas emissions, pollution, and soil degradation, and indirect impacts such as the production of grain and animal feed required for cattle nutrition.
It has been estimated that, in the year 2000, the global livestock population was 1,331 million cattle, 1,060 million sheep, 905 million pigs, and 235 million geese (this being the highest absolute increase since 1961). The total livestock population in 2000 was 20.6 billion animals, of which 14.3 billion were chickens, (FAO data). The most numerous herd at the moment is in India (with 220 million animals), while the highest ratio between humans and farmed animals has been recorded in New Zealand, where there are 12 times as many sheep as humans.[29]
The major global issue raised by this number of animals is undoubtedly their need for food and space. The so-called "Livestock Revolution" occurring in most developing countries (i.e. the structural shift in agriculture due to the increased demand for food of animal origin either locally or globally) has already caused serious environmental problems of forest loss and soil degradation. Millions of hectares of tropical rainforest have been lost due to increased ranching and crop cultivation. In Central America, for instance, 6 million hectares have been converted to pasture since 1950, whereas more than 50 per cent of the pasture areas in the Amazon region have been abandoned because they are now too degraded. [30] Even if traditional, low-intensity methods of grazing have been widely recognized as being very important in maintaining soil fertility, especially in semi-arid areas, current consumer demand has pushed these practices towards unsustainable levels. [31] Overgrazing, in fact, may be the cause of soil erosion, decreased fertility and organic content, water infiltration and soil compaction. These effects are already observable in large regions of Africa where the time required for land recovery is not respected anymore, and animals are kept in high numbers on the same spot for long periods.[32] It has also been demonstrated that the geographic location of grazing may have a higher environmental impact than animal density and intensity, depending on the specific conditions of the area. [31]
Problems linked with soil erosion, driven by livestock production, are usually typical of developing countries where traditional farming systems are predominant. However, the current global trend is towards intensive, industrial farming which tends to concentrate animals in small areas and feeds them with specially manufactured fodder. These modern farming methods represent the most serious environmental problem in the livestock sector. [33]
The greatest pressures on the environment from intensive farming are methane and ammonia (NH3) emissions, water and soil pollution due to slurry and manure accumulation, eutrophication and pathogenic contamination. It has been estimated that the annual global emissions of atmospheric ammonia by domestic animals account for 23 million tonnes of NH3-N. Fifteen million tonnes come at present from all developing countries (including China). The projected value for NH3 emissions from animal excreta in the year 2025 is 8.4 million tonnes in East Asia alone (including China), compared with 4.0 million tonnes in 1991. [34] NH3 is a very important atmospheric pollutant with a variety of effects including a contribution to soil acidification which can lead to eutrophication when animal slurry contaminates water. It must be pointed out that an additional load of nitrogen comes from the synthetic fertilizers which are used in the production of feed crops.
The level of environmental impact varies with the specific breed of animal and the climatic conditions pertaining when the animal slurry is spread. For example, it has been evaluated that NH3 losses from animal waste vary from 20-30 per cent for cattle, 40 per cent for poultry, to 12 per cent for sheep. Moreover, spreading of livestock slurries and solid manure on land can be more dangerous if it is carried out on waterlogged soil or prior to heavy rain. [35]
When animal excreta come into contact with water, additional pollution can be caused, because it often contains amounts of toxic residues, hormones, heavy metals or zoonotic micro-organisms. The risk to human health caused by animal residue contamination has become an issue nowadays because of animal concentration near urban centres. Especially in developing countries, the lack of sufficient infrastructure and transport facilities, coupled with the increase in demand for livestock products, has caused the location of large-scale poultry and pig farms in peripheral urban areas. [33]
In addition to the emission of nitrogen compounds, the digestion of food by some animals has emerged as a major threat to the environment due to the large contribution to the greenhouse effect of its methane emissions. Methane is a gas that is 25 times more dangerous than CO2, and which is produced naturally during the digestion of food by ruminants. It has been estimated, for instance, that livestock and manure management produce 550 million tonnes of methane annually. [33] Pigs and poultry generate very low rates of methane because the gas is associated more specifically with the digestive process of ruminants.
Another pollutant derived from livestock production is the solid manure which forms a large amount of organic waste to be disposed of. Beef cattle dominate the global production of manure, accounting for about 55 per cent of the total, which in turn has been analysed as being 3.1x1015 g dry matter. [36] Additional life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies have calculated that in Italian beef production 42 kg of manure are produced for each kg of meat. [37] Moreover, it has been calculated that in a typical western livestock production system, 73 per cent of the manure produced is not utilized in any useful way. In the majority of arid areas of developing countries, where the cost of chemical fertilizers is too high, manure could provide a useful contribution to soil fertility and it could be used as a primary fuel for cooking and heating. Manure could provide the equivalent of the US$750 million value of the synthetic fertilizers currently used in Asia. [29]
As already observed, a large component in the overall impact of livestock production is the use of fertilizers and pesticides in the production of the cereals which generally constitute animal feed. It should be noted that the most common feed crops are also the crops which have some of the worst effects on the environment. [33]
The growing demand for animal protein is currently satisfied by feeding the animals with concentrates based on soy and corn, with added proteins which are usually provided in the form of fish-meal or other by products of food manufacture.
The Livestock Revolution has caused a large increase in feed grain production, shifting the balance of agricultural output from humans to animals. In 2000, a global record of 167 million tonnes of soybean harvest was recorded. The area planted with soybeans is expected to increase in the near future. [38] The production of corn has also grown dramatically in the last 30 years, because it is the main source of food for livestock, poultry and farmed fish.
The conversion efficiency of grains into edible animal products is of crucial importance when considering growing global food demands. It has been calculated that the feed conversion efficiency for beef produced by industrial farming is about 2 per cent, while in most of the non developed regions it is about 0.5 per cent. [39] It has also been estimated that pork and poultry systems are generally 10 times more efficient in feed conversion than is beef. [1] It is known that beef production, using feed grain from high-impact farming, gives less than 80 kg protein as output per cultivated hectare per year, whereas soybeans can produce 900 kg crude protein per hectare per year. [40]
At present about 66 per cent of global maize production is used for animal feed, [41] and it has been calculated that, in the EU, the area under oilseeds and protein crops (such as soy) would have to be increased by 2 million hectares just to make up for the amount of meat and bone meal used as feed, which has recently been banned. [42] To complete the picture of the environmental impact of livestock production, this example looks at the complex network of interactions among the different global trophic chains. Total world fish production has expanded dramatically and reached 121 million tonnes in 1996. A considerable increase has been registered in the sector of aquaculture, led by China. Fish stocks have nearly collapsed in many parts of the world. The amount of marine fish catch for human consumption has been constantly declining, while the growth in oceanic fish catch has exceeded even that of beef and mutton, reaching the rate of 86 million tonnes in 1998. [43] One of the reasons for this current sharp increase in fish catch is due to the growing demand for fish-meal and fish oil, required for feeding cattle and farmed fish. [44] It has been calculated that from 1000 kg of input fish, only 216 kg fish-meal and 34 kg fish oil are obtained in a typical fish food manufacturing plant. [45]
Consider the low efficiency rate at which animal farming then converts this food into
meat for human consumption, and the nonsense of this whole production cycle is clear.

Figure 5 - Components of the environmental impacts of a typical food chain

Environmental impact of the processing phase

Although it is commonly accepted and it has been widely demonstrated that the farming phase accounts for most of the environmental impact in the food production cycle, manufacturing and household consumption also play a key role due to their high use of energy and water and their high levels of waste production. These factors are a problem at global scale but are a more immediate problem for the majority of Western countries. For example, it has been estimated that in a developed country, with an average diet of 3000-3500 kcal/day, the commercial energy spent for each nutritional kcal consumed is about 10 kcal (basically coming from non renewable resources). In less developed countries, the value of energy spent for 1 nutritional kcal is about 3-5 kcal (most of which is in the form of biomass). [46]
In another recent study, it has been calculated that in the US Food System the percentage of total energy used in the phases of processing, packaging, transportation, distribution and home preparation is about 75 per cent of that of the entire food chain. However, what is important is that even if the percentage has remained stable for 25 years, the absolute amount of energy used in that time has more than doubled. [47]
The Bank Sarasin conducted research in which the environmental performance of selected big food companies was assessed, some data on water consumption and CO2 production in food processing are summarized in Table 1. [48]

Table. 1: Various environmental indicators for in-house production, year 1999.

Source: Sarasin 2001

The amounts of water and energy consumed are functions of the specific processes involved, but they also depend on the efficiency of the technologies and work methods used. From the same Sarasin study, it emerged that European and Japanese companies had much higher levels of production efficiency than their US counterparts. A reason for this could be that Europe and Japan both have more developed Environmental Management Systems. These may have been put in place for many different reasons which could include legal constraints, a desire to reduce energy costs, waste disposal and treatment charges, a company's desire to promote a positive image of itself to its customers or a genuine concern for the environment.
Whatever reasons drive food manufacturers to adopt more environmentally friendly practices, it is encouraging that they are doing so. Even if this is done in an 'unconscious' way or purely for economic gain, use of these environmentally beneficial practices is growing and this in turn promotes a growing awareness of ecological issues by producers.
Giampietro has raised the point, [50] that, when defining energy efficiency, it is important to integrate the improvements in intensive variables such as the ratio between the energy input and output of a specific process with other variables in a global context. The risk in avoiding this step is to misrepresent the amount of technological progress. For example, technological efficiency in the refrigeration sector has enabled the manufacture and widespread use of much bigger refrigerators, which then globally consume much more energy.
When the energy consumption per unit of gross national product (GNP) known as economic energy efficiency, is related to the corresponding GNP per capita, it shows, for instance, that the actual energy consumption of a citizen in the US is 11 times higher than that of a Chinese citizen. [50]
A clear example of some environmental benefits, derived from the specific level of technology used in abattoirs, has been reported by Consulting Engineers and Planners, Denmark (COWI) in the context of a meat processing assessment. [49] More specifically, through a comparison of three techniques used in abattoirs in typical situations both in developing countries and Western countries using the best available technology. It is possible then to see, as shown in table 2, how important the efficiency of the process used is for decreasing water, energy and pollutant levels in the meat chain.

Table. 2: Benchmarks for cattle abattoirs (250 kg cattle)

Source COWI, 1999.

The slaughtering phase is a very significant part of the meat production cycle and the following are some of the key factors relating to this:
The total energy consumed in abattoirs generally consists of 80-85 per cent thermal energy, mostly used in water heating, and 15-20 per cent electricity, used for machine operation, by-product processing and refrigeration. The total energy utilized varies from 1200-4800 MJ per tonne of hot standard carcass weight. [49,51]. Two high energy phases are the cooling of the carcasses from 37 °C to 4 ºC, and the rendering phase, in which elements from the slaughter house are transformed into edible by-products or animal feed (although in the case of rendering the energy consumed enables the conversion of waste into a commercial product). The largest environmental impact from meat production is from water effluents because of their high organic waste content. More specifically, the effluents from the rendering section represent the most polluting type of abattoir waste. Typical pollution loads per slaughtered animal (average 250 kg) are 1-5 kg of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), 0.25 to 1 kg of nitrogen and 0.030 to 0.1 kg of phosphorus. [49] The difficulty in dealing with this kind of waste is the fact that most of it is made up of wastewater which comes from all stages of the meat production process including washing, cleaning, scalding, boilers, and cooling machinery. Typical values of freshwater consumption are 2-15m³ per tonne of live carcass weight. [49]
In order to get a better idea of the overall impact of meat processing, it is useful to look at environmental aspects of the manufacture of other foods. Following the trend in meat consumption, the global use of fish and dairy produce has also increased dramatically. Nowadays, only 30 per cent of fish used for human consumption (25 per cent of the whole fish catch is used to produce fishmeal and fish oil for animal feed) is consumed fresh, while the majority of it is processed and consumed as frozen or ready-to-eat meals, canned, filleted, pre-cooked or as smoked and marinated fish products
The peculiarity of fish is that it is it highly perishable when compared with other food products. This usually causes large losses during the production chain as a whole, which in turn contributes to higher waste loads. Fish effluents usually contain high levels of organic matter, oil and other substances which have typical BOD amounts ranging from 35 kg per tonne of fish intake in the filtering operation to 52 kg of BOD per tonne for canned fish. In the case of shrimp processing, the BOD can reach 250 kg/tonne.
Energy consumption is also very high, especially when energy intensive operations such as the cooking of canned fish, are carried out at the fish plant. Typical energy consumption levels per tonne of fish intake are 65-87 kWh for filleting, 150-190 kWh for canning and 10-14 kWh for freezing and storing.
Water consumption is another factor to consider because water is used in many different phases of the process, but mainly for cleaning the equipment and the work areas (moreover, it is generally fresh clean water that is utilized ). Typical values are 5-11 m³ of water per tonne of fish intake in fish filleting, 15 m³ in canning, while in the case of shrimp processing, 120-175 m³ of freshwater per tonne of intake are transformed into effluent.[52]
Due to the tremendous increase in demand for dairy produce, the global number of dairy plants has increased consistently. Also many new dairy products have recently become
popular. The dairy industry now includes the transformation of raw milk into processed milk, milk based specialities, cheese, yoghurt, butter, ice cream and many other products.
The above products produce huge amounts of effluents, with high organic loads. Typical values are 1.3-2.5 litres of water consumed per kg of milk intake, while the average level of BOD in the effluent is 0.8-2.5 kg per metric tonne of milk intake. [53] Most of the organic substances in the effluents could be recovered for the production of edible value-added by-products.
A dairy plant usually consumes a lot of energy, 80 per cent of which is thermal, to generate steam and hot water. The remaining 20 per cent is in the form of electricity, used to run the equipment. One of the most energy hungry processes is the drying of milk for the production of milk powder, followed by the evaporation of milk to obtain concentrated milk. Typical rates of energy consumption in milk processing are 0.5-1.2 MJ/kg of milk intake. [54]
An LCA study of cheese production indicates that the packaging (including the production of plastic which generates a large amount of waste downstream) is a great contributor to the overall environmental impact of dairy production. [55]
Although water consumption, waste production, and energy utilization remain major issues for all food processing industries, there are great opportunities to improve technical performance and to use the more ecologically sound practices that exist and whose use should be advertised as widely as possible.

Environmental impact at consumer level

Figure 6 - Environmental impact at consumer level

Numerous studies have been carried out in the food sector, both on LCA and Impact Assessment. However, very little of this research has focused on the environmental impact of consumer choices and habits. It is certainly very difficult to assess where along the food chain various environmental impacts occur, especially during the distribution and consumption phases.
Many studies have highlighted the considerable influence of consumers over total energy consumption and emissions, in fact they seem to account for 32 per cent of the total energy demand of the food sector. [56] Most of this consumer impact is indirect and it is also fundamentally linked to other phases of the food chain, since consumption choices have an impact on the production phase.
According to a life-cycle analysis of food in the consumption phase, in the Netherlands, the direct environmental pressure of this particular phase is less than 16 per cent of the whole cycle (including transportation, cooking, and dish-washing). [57] In other words, a consumer could achieve a greater reduction in his/her environmental impact by choosing different food products rather than, for example, going shopping by bicycle instead of by car. [57] It has been argued elsewhere that behavioural changes have the potential for greater reductions in energy consumption than technological improvements. [56]
Transportation is an important factor, both during the retail and distribution phases and in the process of household consumption. It has been calculated that the energy spent by household transport in the Netherlands, for shopping and eating out (assuming an average 3.5 km journey by car, once a week, for food shopping) amounts to 1280 MJ annually. The energy spent in car use for eating out has been estimated at 20 MJ per outside meal. [57] A similar study, conducted in Hungary, shows that the annual distance covered by car for each household's food shopping is about 300-500 km, mainly due to the recent spread of large hypermarkets which increases the distance between households and food stores. [58]
Transportation processes have been shown in many LCA studies to have the largest impact in terms of energy consumption, global warming, acidification and eutrophication. In an LCA analysis of the dairy sector, it has been estimated that the distribution of dairy products to retailers requires more energy than does the transport of the milk from farm to dairy. [59] Air transport of raw materials and ready food products, is another important area of energy consumption, especially if the tremendous growth in trade between distant continents is considered. In addition, there is an increasing demand for ethnic foods and out-of-season vegetables which require more transport.
Current distribution management practices have the following effects. The strategy, generally used by retailers is to provide "just-in-time" delivery of products. This creates a considerable increase in road and rail journeys, often with half-empty loads
As pointed out by Fuchs-Lorek, it is not always more efficient in terms of energy consumption to use local produce. It has been calculated that distribution within a city by lorry requires 2.2 MJ (from diesel) per tonne/km, while long-range distribution may require only 0.9 MJ (from diesel) per tonne/km. The loading phase is very important too - an increase in total lorry weight corresponds to a decrease in energy use. [51]
Transportation is, however, only one of the components in the overall consumption phase, which also includes conservation, preparation and final use, each one having its own direct environmental impact.
Several studies have demonstrated that, within a household's environmental impact, cooking is responsible for most of the overall energy consumption. The level of this depends mainly on the particular cooking method used. For instance, it has been evaluated that the industrial process for making spaghetti requires 2.2 MJ/kg output, while the energy demand for corresponding household cooking is 3.1-4.9 MJ/kg. Rice polishing in industry needs 0.02 MJ/kg, but 0.2-0.9 MJ/kg are needed to cook rice at home. [60]
In a study by Stockholm University, the electricity consumption of different cooking appliances was measured. [60] The results showed that the amount of electricity used per portion varied significantly, between 0.11 and 5.1 MJ, depending on the number of portions cooked and on the specific appliance chosen. The level of energy consumption is also strictly dependent on the particular cooking method, on the cooking time and on the raw food used. In the same study, it was shown that for cooking couscous or pasta 35-60 per cent of energy can be saved by boiling water in a kettle and then pouring it into the pan as opposed to cooking simply on the hotplate. Baking a single portion of potatoes in a conventional oven could require ten times as much electricity as cooking it in a microwave. On the other hand, using a microwave oven for simmering rice, wheat or barley could use 36-92 per cent more electricity per portion than using a well-regulated hotplate. This is due to the fact that simmering requires a lot of time. Moreover, if a conventional oven is used to bake potatoes, the energy spent for each portion can be reduced three times (6 MJ-2.2 MJ) when four portions are prepared at the same time rather than single portions.
In terms of total life cycle energy impact, it has been shown that the specific ingredients chosen for baking are important. When preparing cakes, it is much less energy efficient to use butter rather than vegetable oil, because half of the energy input could be due to butter manufacture. [61]
Further studies have clearly demonstrated the importance of the consumer's role in saving energy throughout the whole food chain. The Swedish Consumer Agency has shown that energy-inefficient cooking pots, can increase energy use by 30 per cent. The use of a glass ceramic hob may decrease energy use by 20 per cent, compared to using a solid hotplate [60]
Other areas of domestic energy consumption are storage and cleaning/washing up. It has been calculated that the direct annual energy consumption per capita, in the Netherlands in 1996, was 440 MJ just for storage of non-alcoholic drinks. [57] An LCA study on fish products in Denmark has shown that part of the total environmental impact (in this case of frozen mussels) was due to the length of time the products were stored in the freezers or refrigerators in consumers' houses. [62] The age, size and efficiency of refrigerators also have a decisive influence on the energy consumption rate.
Energy use per litre of net volume may be decreased by a factor of 15 when frozen food is stored in rooms of 10,000 m3 instead of 10 m3. In addition, a ten year old refrigerator uses 2.7 times more energy per litre usable volume than a new efficient one. Also 50 per cent utilization may almost double the electricity used per litre per day, compared to 100 per cent utilization. [51]
Further studies should be focused on comparing the average energy consumption of food storage in consumers' houses with that of storage at retailers' premises.
Although much attention is given to energy consumption, because it is the most obvious indicator of the environmental impact of the food production phase, there are many other aspects.
Water consumption and waste production are other important factors that deserve consideration when the overall direct impact of households has to be calculated.
Even though food losses occur in all the phases of the food chain, those produced in the household constitute large amounts of waste to be disposed of. High levels of waste have been correlated with high income levels, i.e. 30-60 per cent of food in high-income countries is usually lost. [51]
The average annual rate of waste production per Dutch household has been estimated at 443 kg, 66 per cent of which is made up of food waste, the remainder being packaging waste. [57] A typical Hungarian household, by contrast, produces 208 kg of waste annually, 30 per cent of which is organic. [58] It has also been estimated that typical values for food waste generated in food service operations range between 220g and 600g of food and package per meal. [63]
Households generate large amounts of wastewater from vegetable washing, cooking (especially cereals) and dishwashing. Water usage in a typical Dutch household could reach an annual level of 2,850 litres per capita, and the amount used in cleaning could be seven times more than that used for cooking. [58] For this reason, the current global trend of eating prepared meals, pre-cut vegetables and delivered meals could be welcome, as a positive aspect of this could be a reduction in the volume of transportation, reduction of water and energy consumption and a decrease in waste production. These advantages can be weighed against the growth in the number of single people living alone and the consequent loss of efficiency of larger scale processes of cooking and preparation. On the other hand, however, the impact of additional operations in the processing phase of prepared and ready-to-eat meals should be carefully assessed, especially because the eventual use of refrigeration or frozen products could reverse the situation.
Another current trend in almost all Western countries and urbanized societies is that of eating out - going to restaurants and fast-foods outlets. Several studies have been carried out with the aim of assessing the overall impact of eating out, compared with preparing and eating food at home. The results are still very controversial, due to the complicated web of interactions between the factors involved. It has been estimated that the energy spent on a meal eaten out is generally two to three times higher than that of a home-made meal. A considerable part of this difference is the energy spent in transportation required to reach the restaurant. Another source of energy-usage per meal is the energy used in the logistics of operation of the restaurant itself. [57] More studies are necessary in this field to find the best solutions for time saving and convenience.
It is clear from all the examples previously reported in this paper, that consumers can have a considerable environmental impact, depending on their food buying, preparing, cooking, eating and disposal habits.
The majority of the cases described have looked at the direct impact of day to day household operations. But, as already stated, consumers also have an environmental impact because of their choice of foods. Numerous LCA studies have been conducted with the aim of determining the environmental impact of various food products. The most commonly shared view is that the worst food products in terms of life cycle environmental consequences are greenhouse-grown vegetables and meat products, especially when transported by air. [61,64,65]
The following examples of life cycle assessments will demonstrate how important the choice of a particular product can be. For instance, the manufacture of potato powder for mashed potatoes requires 18 MJ energy per kg; the industrial preparation of barley needs 0.75 MJ; the total energy used during the life cycle of spaghetti (cooking included) is around 1.5 MJ per portion; the energy used for fabricating chips is about 11-15 MJ per kg of output; for chocolate production it is about 8.6 MJ per kg of chocolate bar. [51]
In conclusion, the life cycle impact of a MacDonald's type hamburger is examined, both because their consumption is so widespread and because they are thought to symbolize today's 'globalized' society. A typical "Big Mac" is made of bread, meat, dressing, lettuce, frozen dried onions, pickled cucumber and cheese. The total required energy varies between 7.3 and 20 MJ, most of it coming from the production of the meat, followed by the greenhouse growth of lettuce. Considerable amounts of energy are also used in the drying/freezing of onions, the pickling of cucumbers, the cheese manufacture, the bread storage (generally frozen) and the fact that all these ingredients are commonly transported by air. [36]

Current Food Consumption Patterns

Developed countries

It is commonly thought that current food consumption patterns are generally not environmentally friendly but, at the same time, it seems that some emerging trends in consumer habits could have considerably less environmental impact if they are well understood and correctly addressed.
Recent fundamental changes in food consumption patterns everywhere in the world are leading to complete reorganization of the dietary models, which have been established for centuries.
It is necessary to understand these far reaching changes in order to take appropriate future action, which is a difficult task because of the importance of food in everyone's life. The transformation of lifestyles and cultural models, the altered time-organization of daily life, the current socio-demographic changes and the modification of market and labour processes are certainly the largest factors in changing food choices. Globally, food is no longer considered just as a means of survival, but is often considered a criterion for cultural identity and self-expression. In which case, numerous sociological, psychological, biological, cultural, political, and economic factors play a role in the final food choice. Generally speaking, choice of food is determined by biological and physiological mechanisms ( age, gender, personality, etc.), but buying food in a social context is related to the cultural heritage of each individual. Food consumption is heavily influenced by the family and social values of each group, and the sense of belonging is reinforced by food choices. It has been said that the new consumer consumes not only the product itself, but also its 'meaning.' It has been argued that, nowadays, food is no longer the 'means' but has itself become the 'end' of consumption, especially in most of the developed world. [66 ]
Looking at the dynamics of food system development, four ages have been identified:

• pre-agricultural;
• agricultural;
• agri-industrial; and
• the current agri-tertiary age.

In the fourth age, the input of both agriculture and industry accounts for only 50 per cent of the final value of food commodities, [10] whereas the service input has become preponderant, due to of the tremendous increase in eating out and consumer demand for convenience

A current phenomenon in all Western countries, and one which is now becoming evident in many developing countries, is the increasing consumption of highly processed food, such as pre-cut, pre-cooked, ready-to-eat food products (often canned, refrigerated, or frozen), as well as ready-made meals which can be consumed anywhere.

Convenience has become increasingly important when choosing fruit and vegetables. In the period 1997-1999, for example, 52 per cent of vegetables were bought by US consumers as canned, frozen, or dried products; 43 per cent of fruit consumed was purchased as juice. [67] Convenience has also been suggested as a possible reason for the shift, from time- and labour-intensive beef-based meals, to more timesaving poultry dishes. Most current chicken consumption is of the white meat parts, which are readily and easily cooked. This trend has greatly changed the nature of all US poultry exports, because of the resulting huge amounts of unwanted dark meat. [67]
One of today's most evident trends, according to western consumers, is the lack of time for shopping, cooking, and eating. Research carried out in the Netherlands has shown that in 1997-1998, canned and frozen ready meals together represented more than 70 per cent of the total sales volumes. [68] In 1999, French people consumed about 30 kilos of frozen products per capita, while the American average was 45 kilos per capita. [69] The ideas of 'innovation' and 'variety' seem to be particularly important in influencing the purchase of frozen products. It has been estimated that 17 per cent of frozen products now on the market did not exist two years ago.
Among all the available "ready-meal" solutions, the most popular at the moment are the 'ready to heat' products (such as chilled and frozen pizzas and canned spaghetti) and the partly cooked foods (such as frozen lasagna or dehydrated pasta dishes). Since a typical western consumer expects to spend no more than 30 minutes on food preparation, cooking, eating and cleaning up, [70] food manufacturers and retailers have shown enormous interest in the marketing opportunities that this allows. It has been reported that, in 1998, 'ready-meals' sales in eight western European countries were US$13.5 billion. [68] Saving time is without doubt the most important reason for the success of ready-to-eat foods.
The reasons for people's increased awareness of time constraints can be found in the disappearance of the traditional organization of society. The majority of women in developed countries have now entered the labour force; the rate of urbanization has globally increased (in 1960 one in every three people lived in an urban centre, the prospects for 2025 are that urban population will be more than 60 per cent of the global population) [10]; working hours and the distance between workplace and home have grown; disposable income, available for spending on value added food products (such as convenience foods), has increased. These changes all have the effect of moving the centre of family life away from the home [71]. Moreover, people increasingly wish to spend their time expanding their leisure activities rather than on eating or food chores. The ongoing process of 'individualism' and changes in the composition of households also have to be taken into consideration. The number of people living alone has increased dramatically in the last decade in all western societies and it can be seen that in these one-person households the social value usually connected with eating a traditional meal is no longer present. This additional factor then further encourages singles to consume ready-made and quick meals, often eaten outside. In the year 2000, the total percentage of US consumers who used supermarkets as a source of take-away food was 23 per cent, out of which 18 per cent were people who lived alone. [72] A study of the eating habits of young people, by the Norway National Institute for Consumer Research (SIFO), found that social context is a very important factor in food choice. [73] These young consumers habitually ate a lot of processed and ready-made food (pizza, instant soups, hamburgers and fish-fingers). In their daily diet, food had to be easy to make, tasty, and inexpensive. These characteristics were mentioned as important when discussing their day to day lives as singles, but when they were with their family at home, or in the company of a girlfriend or boyfriend, the importance of a proper, traditional meal was usually recognized. So, it could be concluded that certain norms, expectations, and values are associated with food within the family context or, put more strongly, that attitudes towards eating and serving proper food are primarily related to the concept of 'home'. [70]
Other factors affecting consumption patterns, are the presence of children in the household and the gender of the consumers. It has been recorded that American households with children spend about 26 per cent more than the average consumer and often this increase is due to the purchase of new products that are specifically positioned by retailers in order to be very appealing to 'new moms'. [76] Many studies have demonstrated that the role of children is instrumental in determining the dietary habits of entire households. For example, mothers try to be more responsible when children are part of the household and usually buy more nutritional food, such as meat. [75]
Even if great socio-demographic changes have been occurring in all developed countries, the traditional role of women as household food-shoppers and as family cooks has generally been maintained. [77] Women are usually more sensible and cautious with regards to food quality and safety. In addition, women's priorities concerning food purchase and consumption are often different from those of men, but it is also true that children and men have a greater influence than women in choosing the type of food consumed at home [78].
This is particularly true when studying meat consumption. It has been observed that, in spite of numerous recent crises in the meat sector, due to the spread of animal diseases, the widely accepted correlation between increase in welfare and increase in meat consumption is still valid. The traditional view of meat as a necessity and the traditional concept that men and boys need specifically protein-rich diets are both widespread, especially among consumer groups where educational and economic levels are not high. The proof of this is that, once meat prices fall, meat products are generally favoured as dietary options. [79] Although income and price are two important factors in choice of food in developed countries, consumer information and education are relevant factors as well. For example, the 7 per cent increase in US beef demand, in the year 2001 compared to the 1998 level, has been linked, (apart from strong economic growth), to the changing perception of the nutritive benefits of beef. This was due to a widespread information campaign in the media led by scientists. [80] Until two years earlier, American consumers were gradually reducing the amount of beef and other fat products in their diets because of increasing concern about the danger of cholesterol and the rapid spread of obesity and heart disease among the population. Nutrition, food safety and health benefits have become the most important issues all over the world as far as food consumption is concerned. In every country, consumers have increased expectations about what they eat and ask more than ever for guaranteed quality and safety. Food origin, processing methods, animal welfare and environmental matters have definitely assumed a fundamental role in driving consumers' food purchases. But the key-factor has, without doubt, been the interest in health. [81] In the western world, consumers are nowadays more concerned about their well-being than at any other time in history. People are currently well informed about the importance of a balanced diet in reducing health risks. According to a study of the American news media conducted by IFIC (International Food Information Council Foundation), it appears that disease prevention, disease risk, education and the health benefits of certain foods have assumed a central role in current news coverage. [82] The awareness of and demand for 'functional foods', i.e. foods that provide some additional health or medical benefits including the prevention of disease, has everywhere become a large yet un-predicted success. It was reported, for example, that in the year 1996, 650 billion yen were spent in Japan, on vitamin-containing foods. [83] This increased recognition of the role of nutrition in promoting health among consumers has been quickly exploited by food companies to create a huge market for 'healthy' foods.
One of the reasons for the large growth of the functional foods market is the trend towards ageing populations occurring in all western countries. For instance, the number of people aged over 65 is now the most rapidly growing segment of the American population. The segment of the over-85's is expected to increase rapidly in the future both in America and Europe, due to increasing life expectancy. [84] As people become older, health concerns become predominant and their specific needs and nutritional requirements are changing food consumption patterns. Among the most important factors in the success of functional foods are the development of specific marketing programmes, the educational awareness of consumers, the scientific evidence provided by pharmaceutical companies of a link between food nutrients and health benefits and the willingness of regulatory authorities to approve these new products. [85]
Although the global market in functional foods was estimated to be 65 billion dollars in 2000, and food companies put on the market thousands of novel health-claiming foods (such as 'veggie mozzarella' with no cholesterol, no saturated fat and no lactose [86]) every year, the real global trend in dietary improvements is not necessarily all positive. Consumers, in fact, show a sort of 'schizophrenic' attitude in their food choices, because, even though they claim to be concerned about health, they are still confused, influenced too much by the media and still most interested in taste and convenience.
These factors, in addition to the loss of the traditional daily fixed mealtimes, have caused a tremendous increase in the consumption of "snacks". [87] The current 'snacking' trend usually translates into a massive absorption of sugar, due to the fact that most of the food products eaten during the day generally consist of sweets, chocolates, and cereal-based products as well as beverages. It has been calculated, for example, that the average annual amount of non-alcoholic drinks consumed in 1995 per person in Europe was 115 litres [88], while the consumption level of sodas and juices in the USA had reached 339 kg per person by 1999 (compared to 231 in 1977). [1] In 1997 the total quantity of added sugars consumed by an American citizen was two and a half times the upper recommended limit. [89] This situation is somewhat paradoxical, because one of the reasons for the increase in sugar intake is that the American population has become very aware of the health risks associated with diet so they have shifted their preference from food products rich in fat and cholesterol to "healthier" carbohydrate-based products.
Another important factor behind the success of the 'snack' is the widespread use of massive marketing and advertising campaigns. The amount of money currently spent on advertising may be more than 15 per cent of the final price of a food product. [10] For example, the Kellogg company spent US$1.2 billion on their global cereals advertising campaign, in 1995. It has been reported that supermarkets in the USA, at present, spend an average of 45 per cent of their total advertising budget on newspaper advertisements and internal advertising circulars. [90]
Growth in the use of media and Internet communication, the increase in immigration and overseas traveling and variety-seeking by consumers have all played a key role in the spreading of 'ethnic cuisine.' More people are interested in exotic and varied foods and willing to experiment with foreign delicacies. Nowadays, Indian, Korean, Thai, Vietnamese, Japanese and Caribbean cuisine have been incorporated into western diets. A correlation between the growth in popularity of a particular foreign cuisine and the increase of immigrants from the same region has been observed in the USA. [91] It has also been argued that the consumption of spicy foods at a young age could be one of the reasons for the current chili and hot food craving, expressed by the majority of 18-34 year old consumers. At a global scale, the increase in western consumption of Asian ethnic foods has contributed to a considerable growth in rice imports and trade in foreign food. It has been calculated that per capita rice consumption in the USA has nearly doubled over the last 15 years [76], while the consumption of exotic fruit in European countries has expanded enormously in less than 10 years.
The increase in global food trade and the opening of western markets to food products from far distant places have, however, contributed to developing the current high risk perception of these foods which is shared by both consumers and food authorities.
The public has become very aware of the 'risk' factors associated with diet - usually concerns about quantity or quality of available food and environmental matters. Risk has become a central issue, and awareness and assessment of perceived risks are now part of modern life. This attitude is behind the growing concern of consumers as to the effects of their lifestyle - e.g. the widespread scepticism shown towards modern food production methods and towards the use of additives and chemicals in food manufacturing. These questions have caused people to consider, more than ever, the health, environmental, and ethical aspects of the food they consume. [92]
Numerous health threatening events (such as the spread of "Mad Cow Disease," food contamination by E. Coli and mycotoxins and the discovery of dioxin and other toxic substances in food products) have resulted in the current mistrust of any type of food that is perceived as artificial or manipulated. This trend is without doubt evidenced by both the growing popularity of organic products and the widely debated public opposition to genetically modified organisms (GMOs), especially in Europe.
The media have played a major role in publicizing both of these topics in recent years.
When opinions in the developed countries are analysed, there appear to be some contradictory public attitudes towards both GM foods and organic produce.
For instance, the great concern of Europeans over GM foods has resulted in the recent banning by law of any GM residues in food or animal feed, if it is not well labelled and easily recognized. [93] Americans, on the other hand, have rarely expressed strong reservations about food technologies. The effects (or maybe the cause) of this are that, by 1996, twenty-three GM crops had been approved in the USA for commercial production, and that more than 80 per cent of the transgenic seed market is concentrated in the hands of a few American private companies. [94,95] More consistency may be observed among the western countries in their consumption of organic produce, as organic food production levels have soared in these countries. For instance, in 2000, US sales in the organic market reached US$7.8 billion dollars [96], while in France it has been estimated that the retail turnover of organic produce has increased by 50 per cent in just three years (1996-1999). [97] The country with the largest amount of land dedicated to organic farming is Australia, with 7,654,924 hectares organically managed in the year 2001.
The topics of GM and organic foods undoubtedly deserve much more discussion, but the most important aspect that should be pointed out in this context is that the motives for purchasing organic foods or for rejecting GM foods are still related to individual health concerns, while environmental and animal welfare considerations play only a secondary role [81,98]. Nowadays people are concerned about these matters and they need to be reassured, while safety, health, and convenience continue to be the main determinants of food choice.

Developing countries

The greatest changes in global food consumption patterns have been in developing countries, and they are remarkable not only because of the dietary modifications themselves, but especially because of the speed at which the process has been taking place. The most important factors behind current trends in developing countries are urbanization, rising incomes and changing lifestyles. When people move from the countryside to the city it has been widely observed that their food preferences change. Urban life usually allows less time for food preparation, offers a wider range of products, and exposure to foods coming from international markets, the influence of other cultures (predominantly western culture) and a decrease in daily calorie demand, due to the change to a more sedentary lifestyle. In almost every developing country, traditional meals based on cereals and vegetables, as well as local grain and root dishes, have been rapidly replaced by, or at least now include, some livestock products and other non-traditional cereals, such as wheat and its primary products pasta and bread. [99] The increased consumption of these particular cereal products has been explained as a consequence of their being easier and quicker to prepare than traditional grains. However, it is also because of the growing interest in foreign cuisine which is available once the level of disposable income has grown.
The most obvious consequence of economic growth is the preference for meat, fish, and dairy products. [100,101] It is estimated that, between 1973 and 1996, per capita consumption of meat, eggs, and milk rose in all developing countries, by an average of 50 per cent per person. Current average per capita meat consumption is 24 kg/year, while the projected demand for milk in the year 2020 is about 63 kg a year per person. In China and other countries of East Asia, meat consumption has grown by more than 5 per cent a year since 1980, as the per capita income as risen. The most dramatic change in dietary habits has occurred in China, where the average demand for meat was 41 kg per person in 1996, compared to 20 kg/year just a decade earlier. [103]
A few cases of discrepancy between urbanization and meat consumption have been observed in some developing countries, such as India, usually due to strong local cultural factors. Even in these cases, urbanization still causes other fundamental changes in diet. A large increase in consumption of milk and eggs has been observed in India and other south-east Asian countries. It must be pointed out that in the majority of developing countries, consumption of milk is in its natural form or condensed, while the demand for processed dairy products is still very low. This is particularly true in some African countries where most of the population is not usually willing to pay extra money for industrial milk processing and packaging. [104] On the other hand, it has been observed that when foreign investment is used in development of local infrastructures, the demand for dairy products usually increases. Another important driving force behind increased dairy product consumption is the internationalization of emerging markets. This has created a growing demand for western style dairy products such as mozzarella cheese for pizza toppings. [105]
A new problem is the growing number of people in developing countries who suffer from obesity resulting from the increased meat and fat in their diets. Scientists have demonstrated that when people change their dietary habits from cereals and vegetables to meat and dairy products too rapidly, metabolic disorders are more likely to occur.
Significant growth in the numbers of obese and overweight people can be observed in Brazil, China, India, Malaysia and Mauritius. [106] This situation is paradoxical because in many developing countries, such as India, an enormous number of individuals, children in particular, suffer from malnutrition, but at the same time the rate of obese children is increasing quite rapidly. The prevalence of obesity has increased much faster in the wealthiest, city-dwelling Chinese, where a six-fold increase has been recorded in only 10 years.
One additional factor in the development of this process is the great influence of western lifestyle, spread by the media in developing countries over the last decade. Thanks to the growth of international trade, western companies have made great efforts to try to capture these profitable emerging markets, especially through the use of advertising and marketing tools.
Many opportunities for market expansion have been identified, while numerous markets have already been established for products such as ready-to-drink beverages, pre-cooked noodles, canned foods, and industrially prepared tofu. [107]
Two market areas which are growing at great speed in the majority of developing countries are those of health food products, in particular weight-loss products and dietary supplements. Consumption of confectionery products is also growing. [107,108]
Sales of dietary supplements in Taiwan reached US$590 million in 1997, [109] while the market in Thailand was worth US$190 million. [111]
The increase in demand for these particular food products is linked to growing health consciousness among urbanized people and the growth of their purchasing power. However, it depends even more on the massive advertising campaigns adopted by western food companies. Fast food chains such as McDonald's, Pizza Hut, TGI Friday's, Pizza Express, and Dunkin Donuts are already very popular.
A matter of real concern is that, due to the current process of globalization, western culture has been exporting not only its food products but also its lifestyle, including the negative aspects. This is more serious because consumers from these countries often do not have the necessary education to understand or avoid such dangerous influences. In many developing countries, for example, very poor people who cannot afford to eat proper daily meals, have access to TV which displays tempting and often unhealthy food products. For example, a study conducted in India, in 1999, to assess the impact of advertising on children, demonstrated that advertisements encourage children to substitute regular meals with energy drinks and chocolate products. During the same study, it was also reported that the total amount of TV food advertising was 227 hours per week (considering all TV channels). At the top of the list of advertised products were chocolates, candies, chewing gums, soft drinks, and biscuits. [112]

Market power

In the last decade, the fall of political, institutional and trade barriers between national boundaries has resulted in an inexorable move towards globalization. There are now more companies competing in an increasingly competitive market. In such a context, the success of any enterprise relies, more than ever, on the adoption of specific marketing strategies able to anticipate market changes and provide a quick response to new consumer demands. So what people buy in a grocery store is the result of earlier complex interactions between the 'pull' forces, based on consumer needs, and the 'push' forces based on market strategies intended to identify and sell companies' products.
According to the Food Marketing Institute, 9,248 new food products were introduced in the year 2000 in the USA, while the average number of products carried by a typical supermarket of 44,843 sq. ft in the same year was 49,225. [113,114]
As a rule, products will be stocked by a store for as long as there are customers who buy them, otherwise they disappear from the market. Thousands of different products are therefore chosen by consumers because they satisfy specific 'needs' and have the right appeal which makes them 'unique'.
It is therefore obvious how much attention needs to be given by food companies to marketing, advertising, consumer studies, psychological and sociological research, in order to guarantee a successful and durable shelf-life for their products. Each single element of the product (nutritional function, colour, shape, dimensions, etc.), the way it is presented and promoted to consumers, and where it is sold are carefully weighed and constantly modified in accordance with consumers' expectations. This has become possible, especially lately, thanks to the use of new technologies such as the use of the Scanner at cash points and the Electronic Point of Sale, as well as the spread of networking projects, such as individual customer cards and the creation of customer clubs. These methods have allowed companies to establish direct contact with consumers in order to monitor them continuously and to be constantly fully informed about what they buy. [ 115 ] In this way, food companies are able to understand the trends, needs, and wishes of consumers and are thus ready to adjust their production in order to better meet demand.
All the phenomena described in this paper, which are aspects of change in the structure of society and in lifestyle, usually offer great opportunities for food companies to create new markets, the needs of which they can then promptly satisfy
In general, consumer attitudes and buying habits are based on a wide range of information and input that reaches them in a variety of direct and indirect ways.
Nowadays, food information is available everywhere, in the form of articles in newspapers, short specialized magazines at shop checkouts, news flashes during TV programmes and Internet web-sites.
As reported by the international Food Information Council Foundation, in the USA in 1999, 1,260 stories on food nutrition and food safety reached the public during a period of only three months. [116 ] According to a study by the Food and Marketing Institute, the number of consumers influenced by advertisements in their food choices has increased dramatically and the use of the media by supermarkets and retailers has grown enormously in the past decades. In-store promotions have been indicated as one of the most powerful advertising instruments in influencing shoppers' purchases, even though television advertisements are usually assumed to be the most effective . [90]
TV advertising is, without doubt, the most direct way to reach a target section of the public, but, as a consequence of the rapid global spread of the electronic media, Internet advertising has also assumed an important role. It must be underlined that TV advertisements and the use of other media are just a part of a slower and more complex process that necessarily involves previous, well-studied phenomena acting on consumers' psychology. At present, food companies undertake time-consuming, precise studies before introducing a new product into the market. For instance, the advertising format and the use of particular pictorial information, the choice of a particular tone of voice and the advertisement frame, the specific vocabulary used and the price of the product are a few examples of the methods currently used by companies to modify consumers` perceptions and to influence their buying habits.
Although advertising has great power it is not generally sufficient to modify the lifestyle of entire populations, nor does it account for the current process of convergence in food preferences seen at global scale.
Food companies are well aware that the marketplace has become much more competitive than a few decades ago and that consumers' habits, their awareness, their expectations and their needs are more variable and less predictable than ever.
In addition, new markets - represented by developing countries where social, political and structural changes are occurring very rapidly and where the new communication technologies are enlarging consumers' knowledge and creating unexpected desires - offer immense opportunities for 'mature' western companies. In these complex scenarios, a successful marketing strategy has increasingly to become a political exercise in order to overcome the existing discriminatory barriers, such as taxes, quotas and compliance requirements that often prevent any foreign company from entering these new markets. In addition to the traditional factors of marketing strategy (product, price, place, promotion), nowadays food companies have to take into consideration two new fundamental aspects: political power and public relations. Today, companies have to supply benefits to parties other than potential consumers, such as government regulatory agencies, banks, institutions, labour units, etc. [117]
Today's marketing has in fact been defined as "the art of managing power", usually called "Megamarketing". An example of Megamarketing has been reported in an article by the Harvard College, in which the success of Pepsi-Cola over its rival Coca-Cola on the Indian market was attributed partly to the offers made to the government by the company to bring new food technologies and facilities into the country while, at the same time, offering support for exports of local products and enhancement of rural areas.
Moreover, the interactions between companies and consumers have become much stronger, to the point where food manufacturers no longer sell products, but now 'create' customers. This means that the strategy which allows a certain company to survive the current intense competition is based on creating the scenarios of consumption well before the product is actually sold. The most successful marketing strategy consists, then, of being in the marketplace before demand, in order to shape that demand in a profitable manner. [118]
What is currently happening is that companies - acting on consumers' perceptions, expectations and motivations - create, with the help of those same consumers, their life-styles and desires for particular products. Only when manufacturers are sure that they are able to satisfy consumers' expectations - previously generated and spread by themselves - do they start producing products that correspond exactly to what people "want"
The current orientation of food companies is towards consumer satisfaction, i.e. the ability to manage consumers' expectations. Satisfaction is usually the result of a personal post-purchase evaluation of the product, dependent on a positive result in the comparison between the expected and the real performance of the product.
The new marketing power is therefore based on the ability to manipulate not only the objective quality of products, but also their perceived quality. Companies now work much more in advance to create the social environment and the appropriate values that will later contribute to the generation of consumption trends, which in turn only the company will be able to fulfill. [118]
In order to successfully participate in the production of people's expectations, companies need to communicate as much as possible with their consumers, acting directly on the cognitive and motivational variables that drive consumers in their purchase decisions.
Due to the critical importance of networking, the power of retailers has increased because the point of purchase has turned into the most suitable location for receiving and spreading information about consumption choices. A fundamental step in the process of manipulating consumer expectations consists in the continuous control of induced changes in the customer habits.
One application of the new marketing strategy consists of advertising a certain product which is not yet on the market, or which is not available in a specific market, in magazines and newspapers. This contributes to a build up in the consumers' mind of a preference for that particular product, once (or if) it becomes available. In this context, the rapid identification of a community's values, beliefs and attitudes and then the construction of associations between them and a certain brand constitutes another important strategic tool. [117]
At present, brands possess a sort of symbolism for people who express their identity and establish their cultural principles through alignment with them. [119]
The importance of brand evolution has, for example, been well understood by Nestlé in its attempts to capture the emerging Asia-Pacific markets. The strategy generally adopted in these developing markets consists of initial penetration through the introduction of basic products (such as powdered and condensed milk) affordable according to local per capita GDP. Later, following the rise in income levels, the company starts offering more "aspirational" products, adapted to local tastes and lifestyles. Success is then secured by the fact that, in the meantime, the company